We Need Bill to Help Win Back the South
As I have looked into the Southern Governor situation, I have become much more convinced that supporting my friend, Bill Halter, for Arkansas governor is important.
Arkansas is one of two battleground southern states without an incumbent governor holding elections in 2006, the other being Florida.
I think Bill has best chance of winning in Arkansas and keeping Asa Hutchinson from being governor.
Background Analysis on the Southern Governor Situation
Winning back part of the south will be critical to any future democratic presidential candidate. Looking at previous elections there are only a few southern states that stand out as being truly competitive - Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisiana and Missouri. Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri stand out as having picked the winner every time since 1972 or before. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G04/President-1972-2000.phtml
Three of the states with the closest presidential race in 2004 (Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas) are electing governors in 2006. These three states are important battle ground states up for contention - shown here in order of the closeness of the race.
- Florida - Kerry/Bush 47%/52% - 27 electoral votes
- Arkansas - Kerry/Bush 45%/54% - 6 electoral votes
- Tennessee - Kerry/Bush 43%/57% -11 electoral votes
Winning the governors office in these states has three benefits:
- We get another Southern Democratic governor as a potential presidential candidate
- There is one fewer Southern Republican governor as a potential presidential candidate
- A working governor political operation is estimated to be worth an additional 1-2% (perhaps more) in the national election - given the closeness of these races in the past this might be the difference.
The current status of these governor races is
Florida
- Republican governor termed out
- Democrats- U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa, former state Democratic Party chief Scott Maddox of Tallahassee and state Sen. Rod Smith of Gainesville -- have raised a combined total of $1.8 million.
- Republicans - Attorney General Charlie Crist and Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher are already breaking money records. According to the last contribution report in mid-July, each has raised more than $3 million for the primary battle that culminates on Sept. 5, 2006.
- Republican governor termed out
- Democrat
- Bill Halter
- Ran the Social Security Administration under Clinton
- Senior Advisor in the Office of Management and Budget (They balanced the budget during his tenure)
- Economist for the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress
- Chief Economist for the United States Senate Committee
- Best chance Democrats have to beat Asa Hutchinson
- Mike Beebe
- Attorney General
- Never faced opposition in an election
- Strong links to lobbyists
- Unlikely national candidate
- Projected to lose to Hutchinson
- Republican
- Asa Hutchinson
- Prosecuted Clinton impeachment trial
- Bush appointee to undersecretary for Border & Transportation Security in the Department of Homeland Security
- Three terms in congress - reelected twice without opposition
Tennessee
- Democrats - First term governor Phil Bredesen up for reelection
- Republicans - Candidates not clear yet
posted by Alex at 8:10 PM
5 Comments:
You are obviously a buddy of Halter if you even think he has a chance of winning. Only a buddy and/or an outsider would think that.
I am a voter and resident in Arkansas. I also am very active in the Democratic Party, as well as a candidate for Arkansas Lt. Governor.
Sir, with all due respect, you have spoken rather biasedly and negatively against a man who has spent 24 years working to build up the Arkansas Democratic Party. Your characterizations of Mike Beebe are unfair, biased, and downright erroneous.
Do you even know who Mike Beebe is, or care?
This is your blog and you are allowed your right to speak your mind. But I would prefer that if someone were to talk about the merits of both candidates it would be issue based and not a character assasination. If this attacking by Halter and Halter-surrogates like you on Mike Beebe it will do more than anything to sink not just Bill Halter's candidacy but the chance to regain the Arkansas Governor's Mansion for the first time in ten years.
Mike Beebe spent 20 years in the Arkansas State Senate fighting for many groups who did not have a voice. You mention national aspirations, unlike in California, we do not look for potential Senate and Presidential candidates in our Governors, but rather an individual who will get the job done and work to improve this state. You also are unaware that Mike Beebe has a record of progressive votes and working to protect consumers in Arkansas.
Please get educated before you smear a good man!
Thanks for you commments.
First, for the record this is my own blog, Bill Halter does NOT and his potential campaign does NOT have anything to do with this blog. To my knowledge, they have no idea this blog exists.
Second, I did do my research. As to Mike Beebe's links to lobbyists it has been reported in the Arkansas press. For example, ArkansasNews.com Sunday, Aug 28, 2005, an article called Lobbyists, funding and the 2006 governor's race.
"The knock against Beebe has always been that he is too close to the special interests. Having witnessed this firsthand, it's a charge that holds water. In the 1999 legislative session, a bill aimed at deregulating the state's electric utilities sailed out of the state Senate.
With little debate, state Sen. Mike Beebe helped shepherd it through his realm. Technical components contained in the bill's language were written for Entergy and favored the utility. Making matters worse was the fact that Entergy had a longstanding relationship Beebe's law firm back in Searcy."
And as to the polling, from ARKANSAS DEMOCRAT-GAZETTE 10/04/2005
"Republican Asa Hutchinson is leading Democrat Mike Beebe in the latest Wall Street Journal online poll of key races across the country in 2006. Hutchinson, a former congressman and Bush administration appointee, led Beebe, the state attorney general and former state senator, 46.2 percent to 41.2 percent, in September."
I'll look for your name on Mr. Halter's campaign finance disclosure form. It is unusual for a resident of California to have such a keen interest in a little old state like Arkansas. Your site has been linked to several Halter related blogs and even many Republican blog spots here in Arkansas, that in itself would explain how your not even related to the Halter for Governor Campaign. Tell Ron Oliver hello next time you speak with him.
Sorry, I have no idea who Ron Oliver is.
As to why I care about what happens in Arkansas, read my post "Why I Care About the Arkansas Governer Race"
And yes, I will be contributing to the campaign and have asked everyone in my roledex to do so as well.
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